Indian Meteorological Department Forecasts Above-Normal Southwest Monsoon Rainfall for 2025

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has issued its updated Long-Range Forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season (June–September) along with the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2025. According to the forecast, the seasonal rainfall across the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%, indicating a high probability of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.

Regionally, the rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and the South Peninsular region, while Northwest India is expected to experience normal rainfall levels (ranging between 92-108% of LPA). In contrast, Northeast India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA). The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which covers much of India’s rainfed agricultural land, is also forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, providing a favorable outlook for the Kharif cropping season.

From June to September 2025, most regions of the country are expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall, except for parts of Northwest and East India, as well as many areas in Northeast India, which are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.

Specifically for June 2025, the countrywide rainfall is projected to be above normal (>108% of LPA). While most areas are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, certain southern parts of the Peninsular region, and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, are expected to have below-normal rainfall.

On the temperature front, normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely across much of India in June 2025, with above-normal maximum temperatures forecast for many areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Furthermore, minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most of the country, except in some regions of Central India and the adjoining southern Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.

The IMD will continue to monitor and update forecasts to support planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. Further updates and detailed reports are available on the official.

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